Recent INGV monitoring shows Mount Etna experiencing strong Northeast Crater degassing and volcanic tremor rising to the upper medium range, with minor ground oscillations and possible magma recharge indicated by renewed inflation signals. This unrest follows September ash emissions that briefly elevated aviation alerts, yet activity remains at ordinary-to-elevated levels without confirmed escalation. At 50% market-implied odds for a VEI 2+ event by year-end, key uncertainties center on whether current parameters—tremor sources near Voragine at ~2,800 m, gas flux trends, and deformation—will produce sustained explosive output meeting the VEI 2 threshold or subside. Continuous Osservatorio Etneo bulletins, updated seismic and GNSS data, and any shift in VONA color codes could rapidly alter trader assessments of escalation risk in the remaining months.