Lorenzo Pazolini holds a commanding lead in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial runoff, reflected in the 95% market price, following his 49.65% first-round finish on October 4 that advanced him and Ricardo Ferraço to the October 25 vote. His background as a two-term Vitória mayor and state legislator, combined with a recent Quaest poll showing 47% to Ferraço’s 38%, has reinforced trader consensus around his position. Ferraço, who assumed the governorship in April after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, trails despite prior polling strength during the campaign. Key variables that could narrow the gap include the 15% of voters who report openness to switching preferences before the second round and any late shifts in coalition mobilization or turnout among undecided blocs.