Recent cross-border military movements have heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid renewed fighting in Tigray. In early October 2026, Ethiopia accused Eritrean forces of advancing up to 60 km into northern Tigray in support of a TPLF-led rebel alliance, prompting drone strikes on those positions and formal letters to the UN Security Council asserting self-defense rights under Article 51. Eritrea denied any incursion, countered that Ethiopia seeks a pretext for aggression aimed at Red Sea access, and called for UN deterrent measures after the two nations severed diplomatic ties. Ethiopian troops have since advanced toward the border, while international diplomats, including U.S. officials, have urged de-escalation. These verified troop deployments and mutual claims of aggression form the core drivers of trader assessments on whether an invasion meeting market criteria has occurred or will by the resolution date.