**PCN, PDC, Vamos, and PAIS lead the closely matched probabilities for third place in El Salvador’s February 28, 2027 legislative election, with trader consensus reflecting their competition for the limited seats left after Nuevas Ideas’ expected dominance.** Nuevas Ideas holds overwhelming projected support near 50 seats or more, consistent with recent Data Poll and IUDOP surveys, leaving roughly three to six seats for opposition parties. PCN and PDC benefit from current representation and established departmental bases, while Vamos and PAIS pursue broader candidacies following internal primaries completed by the July 2026 deadline. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal’s late-September call formalized candidate registration through mid-November and introduced a new overseas constituency for six seats, adding uncertainty to seat allocation. Tight spreads among the four parties stem from fragmented opposition vote shares, limited historical polling differentiation, and the structural barrier of NI’s majority. Further separation could arise from final candidate lists, updated nationwide or departmental surveys, or early campaign developments after presidential advertising opens in late October.