Strong containment efforts and limited sustained transmission beyond the Democratic Republic of the Congo underpin the 97.9% market-implied probability of no 2026 Ebola pandemic. Official CDC and WHO data show over 9,000 confirmed Bundibugyo virus cases and roughly 4,300 deaths concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with isolated imports in Uganda (resolved by August), Kenya, and France producing no secondary chains. Epidemiological indicators, including a reproductive number near 2.5 and rapid contact tracing, align with historical patterns where even larger Ebola outbreaks remained regional rather than pandemic-scale. While modeling indicates potential for further growth absent interventions and the strain lacks approved vaccines, current surveillance and low global importation risk support trader consensus. A mutation increasing transmissibility or major control failures in remote areas could still shift outcomes before year-end.