The current Dutch House of Representatives, elected in the October 2025 snap vote following the collapse of the prior Schoof cabinet, began its term in November 2025 with an expected end in 2029–2030. The resulting Jetten minority cabinet (D66–VVD–CDA), installed in February 2026 after extended formation talks, continues to operate despite budget pressures and internal tensions typical of minority governments. No formal dissolution motion, cabinet resignation, or parliamentary majority vote has occurred in 2026, and scheduled activities through October show no imminent trigger. Traders assign a high probability to “No” because the recent election reset the cycle, structural barriers to early dissolution remain high absent a major crisis, and the remaining months of 2026 offer limited window for such an outcome.