The market-implied odds heavily favor no DOJ fine in 2026 because the antitrust probe into Nvidia’s December 2025 non-exclusive licensing deal with Groq remains in its early information-gathering phase. Regulators are examining whether the structure—granting Nvidia access to Groq’s inference-chip technology and key talent including founder Jonathan Ross while leaving Groq independent—avoided Hart-Scott-Rodino review, but sources indicate any potential remedy would likely be civil penalties rather than unwinding the transaction. A parallel shareholder lawsuit filed in early October alleging improper board process adds scrutiny yet does not directly trigger DOJ enforcement. With typical antitrust timelines extending beyond year-end and no findings or charges reported as of mid-October, traders see limited near-term resolution risk.