Sean Combs’ 50-month federal sentence for Mann Act violations, handed down in October 2025 after his split-verdict trial on prostitution-related charges, anchors trader expectations that he will remain incarcerated well beyond 2026. Recent Bureau of Prisons adjustments have shifted his projected release from early 2028 to March 2, 2028, following reports of rule violations including alleged payments for inmate services, contraband access, and disciplinary incidents at FCI Fort Dix. Fresh developments in October, such as a head injury from a reported prison fight and placement in solitary confinement, further eroded any chance of accelerated good-time credits. While Combs’ legal team continues pursuing an appeal, the combination of the fixed sentence length, ongoing disciplinary setbacks, and absence of near-term resolution catalysts sustains the market’s strong consensus against a 2026 release.