Traders assign an 87.3% implied probability to a Democratic sweep coinciding with China failing to claim the top AI model by end-2027 because sustained U.S. advantages in frontier large language models, training compute, and talent pipelines outweigh potential regulatory easing. Export controls on advanced chips continue to constrain Chinese developers' access to the hardware needed for competitive scaling, while leading American labs maintain benchmark leads through iterative releases and infrastructure investments. A Democratic sweep could alter domestic AI policy or enforcement priorities, yet these shifts appear insufficient to close the gap within the tight timeline. Key upcoming catalysts include further semiconductor policy updates and major model launches through 2027 that could either widen or marginally narrow the capability divide.