US-Cuba relations remain defined by longstanding sanctions, an intensified economic blockade including secondary measures targeting energy supplies, and US designations of Cuban officials for alleged human rights issues. Miguel Díaz-Canel continues to exercise authority as First Secretary and President from Havana, publicly addressing bilateral tensions, migration talks, and regional solidarity while rejecting any prospect of US detention. Recent executive orders and diplomatic exchanges have escalated pressure without producing mechanisms for physical custody, such as extradition or military action. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, including Cuba’s institutional continuity, alliances, and the absence of verifiable developments indicating imminent US governmental control over the leader. Scheduled diplomatic or policy deadlines could influence sentiment only if they signal concrete enforcement steps.