The 74.5% implied probability that no criminal charges will result by year-end reflects the slow pace of New York City investigations into the July 2026 structural failure at the former Pfizer headquarters during its office-to-residential conversion. Multiple columns buckled after required steel reinforcements were omitted, triggering evacuations but no injuries, with the Department of Buildings and Department of Investigation continuing joint reviews of construction documents, engineering plans, and contractor actions. As of October, initial safety sweeps of related sites found no broader hazards or imminent dangers, while civil lawsuits and stabilization work dominate attention. Complex forensic analysis of the 37-story project typically extends well beyond a few months before prosecutors consider charges, supporting trader consensus on the timeline.