Recent August 2026 core PCE data held steady at 3.0% year-over-year after benchmark revisions and methodology adjustments lowered prior estimates by roughly 0.3 percentage points, keeping the measure unchanged from July while coming in below initial forecasts. This stability, amid persistent readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and firm consumer spending, has anchored trader expectations for the September print due October 29. With outcomes clustered tightly around 3.0% and 3.1%, market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether underlying service prices and energy effects will produce a modest reacceleration or continued moderation, consistent with the recent flat trend and limited leading indicators from other inflation gauges.