Traders assign a 65.5% implied probability that no comprehensive federal AI framework becomes law before 2028 because Congress has advanced only narrow measures, such as the TAKE IT DOWN Act on deepfakes, while broader proposals like the June 2026 Great American AI Act discussion draft and Sen. Cantwell’s October 2026 frontier AI safety principles remain stalled in committee. Partisan gaps persist over enforceable standards for frontier models versus voluntary approaches favored by the Trump administration’s executive orders, and the November 2026 midterms have shortened the current session with little floor time expected before 2027. State-level AI rules continue to proliferate without federal preemption, and competing priorities plus industry pushback on mandates further reduce the odds of a unified statute clearing both chambers in the remaining window.