Recent fractures in the Morena-PVEM-PT alliance have kept probabilities tightly clustered for the Colima state congress outcome ahead of the June 2027 election. Virgilio Mendoza’s October resignation from PVEM state leadership, after rejecting the coalition following Rosa María Bayardo’s designation as Morena coordinator, has opened space for an opposition front involving PAN, PRI, and MC. Local polling shows Morena ahead but with opposition parties competitive in aggregate, while national alliance talks and the newly installed INE council in Colima underscore procedural and coalition uncertainties that traders weigh when pricing legislative majorities.