Recent polling averages show South Carolina's Senate contest between Republican Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews consistently tighter than Florida's special election matchup of Republican Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon, with South Carolina leads often in the low single digits versus Florida margins around six to eight points. Lindsey Graham's July 2026 death and the subsequent appointment of his sister shifted South Carolina dynamics, drawing stronger Democratic turnout and producing neck-and-neck surveys in September and early October. Florida's race features a more established Republican edge in a heavily Republican state, though late-September and October polls have narrowed Moody's advantage amid independent voter movement. Upcoming debates, early voting starting October 19 in South Carolina, and final turnout patterns among unaffiliated voters could further compress or widen either margin before November 3.