SpaceX has repeatedly demonstrated precise control and heat-shield performance on Starship upper-stage reentries, most notably with Ship 40’s July 2026 splashdown that post-flight data confirmed would have fit the tower’s catch window. Elon Musk recently stated that Flight 15, now targeted for late November, will attempt the first orbital-class ship catch with the Mechazilla arms after payload deployment, following Pad 2 structural tests with Ship 42 and actuator upgrades. The booster has already been caught multiple times, but the upper stage’s higher velocity, full orbital reentry, and stricter positional requirements introduce additional technical risk. FAA licensing, vehicle turnaround timelines, and any last-minute anomalies in the next integrated flight remain the main variables that could shift trader consensus on near-term resolution.