Traders assign a 95.5% probability that no military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained deterrence through Taiwan’s defense modernization, routine but non-kinetic PLA gray-zone activity, and ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic efforts to manage risks. Recent developments, including Chinese live-fire drills announced after President Lai Ching-te’s October 10 National Day address and continued maritime patrols east of Taiwan, have prompted monitoring by Taipei and criticism from Washington yet remain below thresholds for direct confrontation. Economic interdependence, allied military cooperation such as upcoming U.S.-Japan exercises, and the absence of full-scale war games since late 2025 further support this consensus. Late-breaking shifts could still arise from miscalculation during drills, abrupt policy changes in Beijing or Taipei, or major external shocks within the resolution window.