China’s recent pattern of routine military training, including a submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific and a land-based DF-31B ICBM flight earlier in the fall, has not produced signals of further tests before year-end. Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including summits addressing Taiwan arms issues and maritime activity, combined with descriptions of launches as standardized exercises rather than escalatory moves, supports the current trader consensus. Ongoing coast guard patrols and drills near Taiwan continue without crossing into the type of high-profile ballistic activity that would shift implied probabilities. No major exercises or crises are currently scheduled that would require additional launches in the remaining weeks of 2026.