Recent IMF and World Bank forecasts place China’s 2026 GDP growth at 4.5 percent, aligning with Beijing’s official 4.5–5.0 percent target and recent quarterly readings of 5.0 percent in Q1 followed by 4.3 percent in Q2. Strong export performance, particularly in high-tech goods, electric vehicles, and AI-related products, has offset persistent weakness in domestic consumption and investment amid the ongoing property sector adjustment and fading stimulus effects on retail sales. Policymakers have responded with additional fiscal measures, including reallocation of local government bond quotas and infrastructure support, to sustain momentum through year-end. Trader consensus in the 4.0–5.0 percent band reflects these counterbalancing forces and the expectation that targeted policy support will prevent a sharper slowdown, though risks from higher global energy prices, external demand shifts, or deeper property strains could still alter the outcome.