Recent polling shows Morena and its allies holding a narrow edge or statistical tie with the PAN in preference measurements for the 2027 Chihuahua gubernatorial election, with undecided voters and internal party dynamics keeping the outcome fluid. Morena’s late-September designation of Cruz Pérez Cuéllar as state coordinator for the Fourth Transformation has consolidated his position as the likely nominee after a tight internal contest with Andrea Chávez Treviño. The PAN has aligned behind Marco Bonilla Mendoza, the Chihuahua capital mayor and close associate of incumbent Governor Maru Campos. Multiple September and early-October surveys place the two main contenders within single digits or even, reflecting the state’s competitive partisan balance, regional divides between Ciudad Juárez and the capital, and lingering effects of the current administration’s approval ratings. Upcoming internal party processes and any shifts in security or economic indicators before mid-2027 could widen or close the gap reflected in current trader pricing.