Hawi Feysa entered the 2026 Chicago Marathon as the heavy favorite due to her status as defending champion, her personal-best 2:14:57 winning time from the prior year, and consistent major-marathon podium finishes. Traders priced her at 99.6% implied probability based on superior recent form, course familiarity on the fast Chicago streets, and a deeper but still beatable elite field that included Boston champion Sharon Lokedi and two-time Chicago winner Brigid Kosgei. Warm, humid conditions and a competitive early pace tested the group, yet Feysa’s late-mile surge secured the repeat victory in 2:13:33. Realistic challengers to her dominance would have required significant late-race issues such as an unexpected injury, tactical misstep, or a stronger finishing kick from Lokedi or Kosgei that the market viewed as low-probability outcomes.