Amos Kipruto’s 97.5% implied probability reflects his proven mastery of the Chicago course after third- and second-place finishes in 2024 and 2025, combined with a 2:01:39 personal best at the London Marathon in April 2026 and targeted mileage increases in training. The 34-year-old Kenyan’s familiarity with the flat, fast route and consistent pacing in prior editions positioned him ahead of defending champion Jacob Kiplimo despite the Ugandan’s faster lifetime best. A deep field including Tadese Takele Bikila, Milkesa Mengesha, and Daniel Mateiko created competitive depth, yet traders viewed Kipruto’s tactical experience and recent form as decisive advantages on race day. Only late scratches, adverse weather, or an unexpected surge from rivals could realistically alter the outcome in such a one-sided market.