Tsai Yi-yu holds a commanding 90.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the November 28, 2026, Chiayi County Magistrate election, reflecting the county's consistent Democratic Progressive Party support and his decisive primary victory. As the DPP nominee and three-term legislator, he benefits from central party backing, including a recent rally appearance by former President Tsai Ing-wen, plus established local networks and policy emphasis on infrastructure, healthcare networks, and semiconductor-related development tied to TSMC's Chiayi Science Park expansion. Independent challenger Wu Pin-jui, backed by an opposition alliance and serving as Puzi Mayor, trails at 8.5% amid limited crossover appeal. Tsai Sung-yi registers under 1%. Late shifts remain possible from voter turnout fluctuations, major campaign events, or unforeseen legal or health developments before election day.