Wang Mei-hui (DPP) holds the leading 75% implied probability in the Chiayi City mayoral race due to her established local profile as the sitting legislator for the district, consistent polling leads of roughly 6 points over Chang Chi-kai in spring and summer surveys, and recent high-profile central government backing. President Lai Ching-te endorsed her at the October 11 campaign headquarters launch attended by thousands, highlighting her grassroots service, legislative wins on infrastructure funding, and potential for city-county coordination with the DPP’s Chiayi County candidate. Chang Chi-kai (24%), the joint KMT-TPP nominee after winning their primary, benefits from outgoing KMT Mayor Huang Min-hui’s support and infrastructure advocacy but trails amid the city’s structural DPP lean. Minor candidates remain under 3% with limited momentum ahead of the November 28 vote.