Morena holds the leading position in the Chiapas Congress election market due to its established dominance in the current Sexagésima Novena Legislatura and alignment with the federal administration. Recent sessions have shown continued majority control, with the party’s coordinator serving as president of the Junta de Coordinación Política and legislators advancing priorities such as harmonizing state law with federal reforms on rights, health, and indigenous issues. Defections from smaller parties have further expanded Morena’s bloc in the broader legislative environment, while opposition groups including PAN, PRI, and PT register minimal implied probabilities. The next full renewal of the congress is scheduled for 2027, providing a clear timeline for resolution amid stable partisan dynamics.