Chen Su-yueh holds a commanding 92% implied probability in the Changhua County Magistrate race due to sustained internal divisions within the Kuomintang that have weakened its campaign machinery. The KMT directly nominated lawyer Wei Ping-cheng after bypassing a primary and sidelining other contenders, prompting resistance from local factions, the Hsieh family, and incumbent Magistrate Wang Hui-mei, who has largely avoided supporting him at events. This fragmentation has left the opposition without a unified ground operation in a county where personal networks and factional loyalty heavily influence outcomes. Chen, the DPP legislator, benefits from consistent party mobilization, daily voter outreach, and cross-faction endorsements, while independent and minor candidates remain marginal. The November 28 vote could shift only through a late KMT consolidation or unforeseen local developments before ballots close.