José Maria Neves, the incumbent president backed by the ruling PAICV, holds an 84.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the November 15, 2026, Cape Verde presidential election due to his established position, recent party endorsement, and strong performance in the 2021 first-round victory. Official confirmation of six candidates, including main challenger Joana Rosa supported by the opposition MpD, followed Constitutional Court validation in September, with the campaign period set to open October 29. Neves has outlined commitments on youth engagement, territorial cohesion, ocean policy, democratic institutions, and diaspora ties as part of his re-election platform. Lower probabilities for Rosa at 10.9% and other contenders reflect limited polling visibility and the structural advantages of incumbency in this two-round system, though the race remains open until votes are cast.