**José Maria Neves holds an 80% implied probability as the frontrunner in Cape Verde’s November 15 presidential election, reflecting his incumbency advantage and the PAICV’s recent parliamentary majority.** The Constitutional Court finalized a six-candidate field in late September, confirming Neves alongside main challenger Joana Rosa (backed by the opposition MpD at 12.5%), plus independents including Casimiro de Pina (2.8%) and others with minimal shares. PAICV’s May 2026 legislative win, securing 37 of 72 seats, strengthened the ruling party’s position ahead of the vote. Campaigning begins October 29 in a stable two-party system where Neves previously won outright in 2021; the compressed timeline and limited polling leave little room for late shifts before election day.