José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking re-election on November 15, 2026, holds a dominant position in trader assessments due to his first-round victory in 2021 and established record as prime minister. The Constitutional Court confirmed six candidates in late September, including main challenger Joana Rosa of the opposition MpD—the first woman on the ballot—and several independents such as Casimiro de Pina and Gilson Alves. Neves has centered his campaign on a “Cabo Verde 2050” forum, youth engagement, diaspora outreach, and territorial cohesion, while suspending official duties to campaign. The MpD, now in opposition after recent legislative setbacks, has focused on internal reforms under new leadership rather than mounting a strong presidential challenge. These factors align with market pricing that assigns Neves the highest implied probability of victory and sharply lower odds to all other contenders.