Iliana Iotova holds an overwhelming lead in the October 25 Bulgarian presidential election due to her position as incumbent, broad backing from the Bulgarian Socialist Party and allied groups, and consistent polling showing her ticket with Kiril Valchev at 44–50% support among decided voters. Multiple surveys from Gallup, Market Links, Alpha Research, and others conducted in late September and early October confirm a substantial gap over Andrey Gyurov, whose independent ticket trails at 22–26% and positions him as the likely runoff opponent. Low projected turnout around 36% and a high share of voters deciding early have reinforced trader consensus on these probabilities, with remaining candidates such as Kostadin Kostadinov registering only single-digit figures. Recent campaign events, including Iotova’s public appearances emphasizing state institutions and foreign policy, have sustained her frontrunner status without major shifts in the final weeks.