Iliana Iotova, the incumbent who assumed the presidency in January 2026 following Rumen Radev’s resignation, holds a commanding lead in recent polling at 45–48% for the October 25 first round, positioning her as the clear frontrunner with strong backing from the Bulgarian Socialist Party and allied groups. Andrey Gyurov trails at 24–26% as the main opposition challenger, while other candidates including Kostadin Kostadinov remain in single digits. Multiple independent surveys conducted in late September and early October confirm this gap, with analysts anticipating a runoff between the top two tickets given low expected turnout around 36%. The market’s heavy weighting toward Iotova reflects her incumbency advantage, consistent poll performance, and the absence of major late-campaign disruptions ahead of the vote.