Iliana Iotova holds a commanding position in Bulgaria’s October 25 presidential election as the incumbent who assumed office in January 2026 following Rumen Radev’s resignation, drawing consistent first-round support of 44–51% in late September and early October polls from firms including Gallup, Market Links, Alpha Research, and Trend. Her ticket with Kiril Valchev benefits from backing by the Bulgarian Socialist Party and allied groups, while low projected turnout of 35–37% favors established party mobilization. Andrey Gyurov, the former caretaker prime minister running with Georgi Kandev, trails at 21–27% as the clearest alternative from reformist and pro-EU circles, positioning the pair for a likely runoff under the two-round system. Minor candidates such as Kostadin Kostadinov register single-digit shares, leaving little room for shifts absent major late developments. Current market pricing reflects this established polling hierarchy and the structural advantages of incumbency heading into the final campaign stretch.