Incumbent President Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in the October 25 first round, backed by consistent polling at 44-48% support among likely voters, roughly double her nearest challenger Andrey Gyurov. Her position stems from assuming the presidency in January 2026 after Rumen Radev’s resignation, combined with endorsements from the Bulgarian Socialist Party and aligned groups, plus emphasis on state institutions, sovereignty, and Black Sea security during the campaign. Low projected turnout near 36% further concentrates support among established voters. Traders price her first-round victory at 97.5% because no other registered candidate approaches double digits. A realistic shift would require unusually high mobilization of opposition or undecided voters (currently around 20%) or a major late development altering the stable two-week polling trend ahead of election day.