Iliana Iotova holds a commanding position in the October 25 first-round contest as the incumbent who assumed the presidency in January 2026 following Rumen Radev’s resignation, backed by a broad nomination committee and BSP support. Recent polls from Gallup, Myara, and Trend place her ticket at 44–48 percent among likely voters, well ahead of Andrey Gyurov at 22–25 percent and Kostadin Kostadinov around 9–11 percent, with the remainder fragmented across more than two dozen other registered pairs. This lead reflects her established national profile, cross-party endorsements, and the absence of comparable organizational strength among challengers. A first-round upset would require either an unforeseen consolidation of opposition votes or a sharp late shift in turnout patterns, neither of which current polling or campaign dynamics indicate.