Iliana Iotova holds a commanding lead in the October 25 first-round vote as incumbent president, having assumed office in January 2026 after Rumen Radev’s resignation. Recent surveys from late September and early October, including Gallup, Market Links, and Trend, place her ticket at 42–48 percent among decided voters—well ahead of Andrey Gyurov at 22–26 percent and Kostadin Kostadinov in the single digits—with the remainder scattered across more than two dozen other candidates. Broad backing from Progressive Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and allied groups, combined with her established national profile and expectations of modest turnout near 36 percent, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 96.8 percent market price. A first-round majority remains unlikely, so the outcome hinges on whether any challenger can consolidate enough second-preference support to force a November runoff. Late shifts in undecided voters or unusually strong opposition mobilization represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap before election day.