Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Tocantins for the October 25 presidential runoff due to his first-round victory in the state with 50.44% of valid votes against Lula's 43.42%, reversing Lula's 2022 win there. Recent local polling, including a Quaest survey from October 10-13 showing 48% for Flávio versus 42% for Lula, reflects sustained regional support tied to alliances with center-right state candidates such as Professora Dorinha in the concurrent gubernatorial race and broader conservative momentum among voters. With most respondents indicating firm choices and low undecided shares, trader consensus aligns with these patterns. Shifts could still occur from turnout variations, last-minute campaign developments, or national events influencing the final days.