Lula holds a dominant position in Sergipe for the October 25 presidential runoff, backed by first-round results showing 62.75% support against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 30.63%. Recent state-level surveys, including AtlasIntel and Quaest, confirm Lula maintaining 56-62% in valid-vote scenarios, reflecting consistent Northeast voter patterns favoring PT candidates. Traders price Lula at 98.2% for first place in the state, aligning with these margins and historical regional dynamics. Flávio Bolsonaro registers just 1.9%, as national polling advantages elsewhere have not translated locally. A reversal would require an unprecedented late swing exceeding typical polling error or turnout shifts, though the short timeline to election day limits such movement.