Lula's strong first-round performance in Sergipe, where he secured 62.75% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 30.63% on October 4, underpins trader consensus favoring him for first place in the October 25 runoff. Recent state-level surveys, including those from Quaest and AtlasIntel, show Lula maintaining 56-62% support in hypothetical second-round matchups, reflecting entrenched backing in the Northeast and PT-aligned local networks. Flávio's national polling edge has not translated locally. A late surge in opposition turnout, shifts among undecided voters, or unexpected national developments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited room for reversal before election day.