Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in São Paulo voter sentiment for the October 25 runoff, reflecting his first-round victory in the state with roughly 52% of valid votes against Lula’s 38%. The Liberal Party candidate benefited from strong backing in the Southeast, including among evangelical voters and higher-income groups, alongside broader right-wing gains that delivered first-round wins in 15 states. Pre-runoff polling in São Paulo consistently showed him ahead by double digits in head-to-head matchups. Trader consensus at 97.8% for Flavio incorporates these results and momentum, though outcomes could shift with turnout differences, final campaign events, or unexpected developments in the remaining two weeks before voting.