Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Roraima during the October 25 runoff, reflecting the state’s consistent conservative tilt and his 71% share of valid votes in the first round—the highest nationally. Recent local polling showed him ahead by wide margins against Lula, consistent with Jair Bolsonaro’s prior strong performances in the state tied to priorities around mining expansion, cattle ranching, and rural development. High rejection of the incumbent government further reinforces this positioning among Roraima voters. While the race remains formally between the top two candidates, shifts could occur only through unusually low turnout or major national developments in the final weeks that alter regional preferences.