Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Roraima trader pricing for the October 25 runoff, driven by the state's consistent alignment with the Liberal Party and the Bolsonaro family. Jair Bolsonaro captured over 76% there in the 2022 second round, and recent local polling showed Flávio ahead by roughly 39 points in September. The PL ticket's strong first-round performance for governor and senator candidates, combined with campaign messaging on expanded mining, cattle ranching, and legal mineral exploration, reinforces this positioning among voters in a resource-focused northern state. Lula trails sharply at under 1% implied probability. A decisive late swing would require major national developments, unusually high opposition turnout, or unforeseen candidate-specific events to alter the outcome.