Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Rondônia for the October 25 presidential runoff due to the state’s consistent conservative leanings and his dominant first-round performance there. With 100% of ballots counted, he secured 67.45% of valid votes compared to Lula’s 25.89%, reflecting strong support in the northern Amazon region where right-leaning candidates and the Liberal Party have gained ground. Pre-election surveys, such as a late-September Quaest poll showing him at 53% versus 19%, aligned with this outcome and mirrored broader state-level results, including the first-round election of a PL governor. Traders view the margin as structurally durable given historical voting patterns and party alignment, though an unusually sharp national swing or turnout anomaly could theoretically narrow it before runoff day.