Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Rio Grande do Sul’s second-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s strong right-wing tilt confirmed in the October 4 first round. There, he captured 55.6% of valid votes against Lula’s 35.7%, outperforming national margins and aligning with parallel Liberal Party gains, including the gubernatorial win by Luciano Zucco. Pre-election surveys in September consistently showed Flávio leading or competitive locally, supported by conservative voter bases in the South. The October 25 runoff leaves limited time for shifts, though factors such as turnout patterns among undecided voters, campaign messaging on security and economic issues, or any late developments could still influence final shares in this closely watched battleground state.