Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Rio Grande do Sul for first place in the October 25 runoff, driven by the right-wing surge evident in the October 4 first round. He outperformed expectations nationally with 47% of valid votes against incumbent President Lula’s 45%, and southern states including RS showed even stronger margins for the Liberal Party candidate and aligned gubernatorial and Senate contenders. Pre-runoff polling in the state had already indicated a lead for Bolsonaro among evangelical voters and men, consistent with the region’s historical patterns of support for the Bolsonaro movement. The absence of other right-leaning candidates in the second round concentrates that vote share, while Lula’s coalition-building efforts have not offset the shift. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include late shifts in turnout among undecided or center-left voters or unexpected campaign developments in the final weeks.