Lula holds a commanding lead in Rio Grande do Norte for the October 25 presidential runoff, with recent state-specific surveys showing him at 65 percent of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning reflects the Northeast region's consistent support for the PT candidate, reinforced by first-round results where Lula captured nearly 60 percent there. Traders price the outcome accordingly, viewing local polling trends and historical voting patterns as decisive. A reversal would require substantial last-minute shifts in turnout among undecided voters or unexpected campaign developments in the final week, though the current gap leaves limited room for such movement before election day.