Lula maintains a commanding position in Rio Grande do Norte for the October 25 presidential runoff, backed by consistent polling leads of 25–35 points over Flávio Bolsonaro throughout September and strong first-round results showing 59.75% support in the state versus 34.77%. Multiple surveys from institutes including Exatus, ITEM, Quaest, and Metadata confirmed Lula’s advantage among potiguar voters, reinforced by his performance across 165 of 167 municipalities. The market’s 96.7% implied probability for Lula reflects this entrenched preference and limited time for shifts before runoff voting. National developments, such as recent AtlasIntel polling showing Flávio ahead countrywide, have not altered the state-level dynamics, though late swings in turnout or candidate messaging could still influence final margins.