**Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in Paraná during the October 25 runoff, reflecting consistent state-level polling margins of 15–25 points over President Lula.** Multiple surveys, including AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data, have shown the senator from the Liberal Party (PL) ahead by wide margins among valid votes in the southern state, supported by stronger performance in key demographics such as evangelicals and men. Paraná Governor Ratinho Júnior’s recent endorsement has reinforced this positioning ahead of the second round. National polling averages remain closer, but Paraná’s conservative tilt and lower Lula approval in the region sustain the wide gap in market-implied probabilities. Late swings in turnout or undecided voters could still narrow the outcome before election day.