Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 25 runoff because he won the first round there with 48.24% of valid votes to Lula's 43.33%, flipping a state Lula carried in 2022 and aligning with national results that advanced the pair to the second round. Recent pre-runoff polling showed tight or mixed head-to-head numbers in the state, but Flávio's stronger performance in major cities and among key voter blocs has shifted trader consensus toward his advantage. Both campaigns are now targeting Minas Gerais, the country's second-largest electorate, with Flávio emphasizing traditional alliances and Lula deploying high-profile local figures to close the gap ahead of the vote.