Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader consensus for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 25 runoff, driven by his first-round performance where he secured 48.2% to Lula’s 43.3% in the bellwether state. This edge aligns with broader right-wing gains, including the Liberal Party’s strong showings across multiple states and the Republicanos candidate’s outright gubernatorial win in Minas Gerais. Pre-runoff polling trends and the consolidation of conservative support behind the PL nominee have reinforced expectations of continued strength in the Southeast swing state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include shifts in evangelical or southern voter turnout, late campaign developments, or unexpected endorsements altering the final margin.