Flávio Bolsonaro secured a decisive first-round victory in Mato Grosso do Sul on October 4, capturing 58.63% of valid votes and winning 73 of 79 municipalities against President Lula’s 40.51%. Multiple pre-election surveys, including those from IPEMS, Quaest, and Campo Grande News/Novo Ibrape, consistently showed him ahead by double-digit margins throughout September, reflecting entrenched regional support for the PL candidate in the state. The second-round contest on October 25 now hinges on whether Lula can close the gap through turnout mobilization or national campaign dynamics, though the scale of the first-round margin has produced strong trader consensus around the frontrunner’s position. Late developments such as shifts in undecided voters or unforeseen events remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.